As the European Milk Board reported at an international press conference in Brussels on 24 January, subsidies are not going to stop the farmer protests that are taking place in numerous countries. “For those, like us, who have been following the developments in the agricultural sector over the last few years and decades, it is clear that the protests being organised now have not simply cropped up but are driven by very specific causes”, says EMB President Kjartan Poulsen. “These deep-rooted causes cannot be addressed with minor, cosmetic fixes or, worse yet, ignorance.”

In a mass closing even in front of Brandenburg Gate in Berlin on Monday, 29 January, the agricultural sector, supported by artisans and transport companies, shone a light on the manifold problems they are facing. The far-reaching criticism by farmers did not fall on deaf ears.

As the first months of 2024 come to an end, the prospects and anticipation for Irish dairy farmers could not be more different to those that prevailed almost a decade ago when the European quota regime was about to be lifted. The sense of confidence that was felt by the Irish dairy sector has evaporated.

At that time, we looked to the future with an expectation of increased flows of milk that had been constrained for 30 years. Now we see that we have ‘been led up the garden path’ and the future held out to us – and in which we have invested our money and working lives – has been revealed as a deception. The same people that told us to accelerate then are not just ordering us to stand on the brakes – but have removed our wheels altogether.

That is where many dairy farmers find themselves in 2024: a reduction in our derogation from 250 kg of nitrogen per hectare to 220 kg of nitrogen has the potential to cause a lot of economic damage to both the farming sector and the wider rural economy that depends hugely on farm spending. The ability to keep it at 220 kg is dependent on water quality improving or staying constant in the years to come, and on this we can be reasonably confident. Ireland’s water quality has always been at the higher end of the table in the EU, and it is a standard of which we are rightly proud and determined to keep.  

The problem is that water quality has been tied to stocking rate on Irish farms and in the media’s eyes – if not that of science – it is a connection that is hard to shake. There is no doubt that water quality may be affected by stocking density, but the management of slurry and artificial fertilizer is certainly the main driver of the leaching of nitrogen. Irish farmers have adapted quickly to a raft of new regulations that have accompanied the Nitrates Action Plan and are already seeing the benefits of that science-based approach. However, time is not being given to see the direct results from those changes and we fear that regulations will tighten further without the appropriate time for full results to ‘work their way through’ and show the improvements that we know are already underway.

The knock-on effect of the new regulations is that production from Ireland will decrease in the coming years and that family farms will have to become bigger to survive. Many of those farmers affected by the changes in regulation have less than 40 hectares. Indeed, milk supply in Ireland will be back around 3% in 2023, the first fall in production since 2012. And in time we will see that 2022 was the apex of our production. The fall in production is a direct result of weather, prices, and a draining away of confidence. Milk prices in Ireland have taken the biggest fall across the EU at over 30% year-on-year. Weather in Ireland in 2023 saw one of the wettest years on record with rain on a (more) constant basis from July to December. Cows were dried early as farmers then prepared to cut some of their stock in preparation for the new derogation rules that came into force from 1 January.

2023 was not a year to remember, and we hope – and will work towards – making 2024 a better year on both lowering restrictive regulation and raising prices and income.

Paul Smyth, Executive Secretary of the ICMSA Dairy Committee

The Swiss dairy market is at risk of going off the rails. The free trade of cheese with the EU since 2007 is the cause of severe problems in Switzerland. The steadily rising exchange rate for the Swiss franc is exacerbating the situation: while the euro was worth 1.50 francs when it was introduced, today it has dropped to merely 0.95 francs. In parallel, production costs in Switzerland are constantly rising, and the milk price is unable to cover these costs.

Sweden is seeing significant developments, particularly in the dairy sector, which is currently facing major challenges. Amidst the broader geopolitical focus on Sweden's NATO accession and agreements with the USA for access to our military bases, the agricultural sector, and more specifically dairy farming, is experiencing profound upheaval.

At a recent General Assembly, APROLEP's member dairy farmers voiced their concerns against the backdrop of political and economic uncertainty. They highlighted persistent high production costs, especially for animal feed.