Key indicators in the dairy sector point to a downward trend on the market. The average price for Italian spot milk, for example, has fallen by almost 10 cents since December 2022 and was at 54.08 cents per kg of milk by the end of January. The price in January last year was 44.75 cents.

The three regulations that create the framework for the future Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) were adopted in 2018 and to a certain extent, they are the technical and legal provisions that serve to achieve a political vision and environmental ambitions that were only defined in 2019-2020. Besides the fact that the technical and financial means are not adapted to the goals set out in the strategies developed by the European Commission, these strategies were not subject to any prior impact assessment or evaluation before they were announced.

Today, however, it is no longer possible to deny the results of an impact assessment on the consequences of the Green Deal by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) as well as a technical report on the potential effects of the ‘Farm to Fork’ (F2F) and Biodiversity strategies by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission. The authors are on the same page about the fact that such policies will lead to a drop in production across all sectors, which will have a negative impact on the European Union’s trade deficit.

According to the study, the F2F strategy will cause production to plummet and prices to rise across the EU, with the required 50% reduction of nitrogen surplus having the most severe impact. Beef production will decrease by 20%, milk by 6.3%, cereals by 21.4% and oilseeds by 20%. The herd size will also shrink by 45% for sucklers and 13.3% for dairy cows. There will be reductions in terms of area as well: minus 2.6% for cereals and minus 6% for oilseeds.

The price of beef will increase by 58%, of pork by 48% and of milk by 36%. When it comes to the production of fresh vegetables, fruits and legumes, prices will increase by 15%, for cereals by 12.5% and for oilseeds by 12.5%. Once again, the 50% reduction of surplus nitrogen is the measure that will have the greatest impact. The other measures of the F2F strategy will have a more moderate impact, leading to a price increase of 5%, except for pesticide reduction which will lead to a price increase of 10% for oilseeds and fruit and vegetables.

The Green Deal is an attempt at maintaining production on less agricultural land, with less plant protection products and fertilisers, increasing the share of organic production, all for the global market and without protection against imports from third countries. Farmer remuneration seems like an afterthought and consumer consent – and for some time now due to inflation, purchasing power – also seem to be secondary concerns.

The successive CAPs since 1992 have only increased our food dependence, impoverished farmers, led to larger farms, made food more expensive, and increased the number of malnourished people! All this without the slightest global impact on greenhouse gas emissions.

For Coordination Rurale, this so-called Green Deal can only succeed if the Common Agricultural Policy undergoes a fundamental reform and regulates production and markets. This new deal for Europe must aim at cementing the coherence between agricultural, trade and environmental policy without placing farmers’ needs and consumer expectations at loggerheads. Europe must clearly and imperatively ensure healthy and sustainable nutrition for all its citizens. However, it is also necessary and urgent to ensure that farmers can have a decent and equitable quality of life and that their contribution in feeding the continent is recognised, so that they can continue to produce. This is one of the basic conditions for this Green Deal to succeed.

Farmers are an integral part of this change but they must be given the means and a conducive economic environment to play their part. Establishing the agricultural exception and food sovereignty as the founding principles of this strategy would be pioneering and would be a reorientation in this Europe that has abandoned its farmers for decades now. According to Coordination Rurale, Europe must adopt a new strategy that consists of limiting the import of products to those in shortfall while trying to reduce all imports as much as possible to avoid competition with internal production, pursuing the goal of self-sufficiency in all sectors where possible. This requires the implementation of variable, protective customs duties at the borders of the EU.

Véronique Le Floc’h, President of Coordination Rurale, dairy farmer in Finistère

The EU’s Green Deal proposal envisages a carbon-neutral EU by 2050 to be achieved through changes across a range of sectors, with Irish agriculture playing a significant role in Ireland’s response. The EU Green Deal has set targets to halt biodiversity decline, improve water quality, and to reduce fertiliser and pesticide use.

It is safe to say that what the European Commission is planning to undertake with its ‘Farm to Fork’ strategy (F2F) is quite novel. It aims to reduce nutrient loss in the EU by at least 50% by 2030, while maintaining soil fertility. The same is foreseen for pesticide use as well. In addition, according to the F2F strategy, the share of organic farming should increase to 25%.

The objective of having a regional, independent, and sustainable agriculture cannot be reached with the current EU policy. Reforms are urgently needed!
* More independence and better food security
* More regional production
* Small and medium-sized farms, along with greener farms, should be the backbone of European agriculture
* Consistently sustainable farming

As of 1 January 2023, the milk interbranch organisation has increased the reference price for A-milk (i.e. the protected segment) by 3 centimes. At the same time, however, deductions under the “raw material price reduction” fund have also increased by 2 centimes.