The profitability of milk production has been put to the test in recent years due to the end of milk quotas and volatile prices. However, the situation did temporarily improve in 2022 thanks to a surge in the milk price, but the ability to put aside savings remained weak on average.

In Denmark, there currently is an intense political debate over how high a tax should be imposed on agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. Proposals range from 100 to 150 or even 200 euros per ton of CO2 equivalents. LDM argues that the digestive processes of cows should not be taxed because they are part of the natural carbon cycle.

Cows belch methane, but this is not a problem for the climate

The impact on the climate from the cow's digestive processes is outweighed by the high carbon storage of the grassland. Reducing the Danish cattle population will benefit the Danish climate accounts, but not the climate itself.

The carbon cycle

The infinitely old biological carbon cycle of a cow and its environment is intact – nothing comes from nothing. Along the cycle, carbon enters into various compounds. It starts with the CO₂ content of the atmosphere; it is taken up by grasses and other vegetative forage plants during photosynthesis and plant growth. In grasses and other plants, carbon is stored in the form of organic carbon compounds.

Cows eat grass and forage plants, and in the digestive process some of the carbon is used for the cow's production of meat and milk, and some of it is exhaled as respiration CO₂. Another part of it leaves the cow in the form of methane via manure. And, finally, the cow burps some in the form of methane produced in the rumen by otherwise useless methanogenic organisms (archaea). These methane burps are the reason why cows are problematic in the IPCC's measurement method, which only looks at emissions. This carbon stems from the feed that the cows have "refined" into methane.

The climate impact of the eternal cow can be calculated as follows:

200 kg of methane per year x 12 years x 27 times the CO₂ effect = approximately 65 tonnes of CO₂ equivalents. One could say that the 65 tonnes of CO₂e is the climate debt of the eternal cow, but the cow also has assets, i.e. climate benefits, because it eats grass, and grassland is known to be good at storing carbon in the soil. Estimates of the carbon content of soils available from literature vary widely and must therefore be treated carefully. It is assumed that dairy production on average uses 0.25 ha of permanent grass and 0.5 ha of rotational grass per cow for grazing and grass harvest, about half of the Danish grassland area.

Based on these figures, it can be calculated that the grassland used per cow stores about 20 tonnes more carbon than the same area would store as grain fields or similar annual crops. The 20 tonnes of carbon correspond to about 73 tonnes of CO₂e. One tonne of carbon (C) weighs 3.67 tonnes as CO₂. If milk production ceases, the only realistic alternative today would be to continue farming the land with grains or other annual crops, which means that over time the area in question will release the calculated additional storage of 73 tonnes of CO₂e. What is more, each cow's share of CO₂e in the atmosphere will also disappear over time.

The climate impact of the cow's digestive processes can be added up:

The climate benefit of a perpetual cow consists of the carbon captured in the soil which is equivalent to 73 tonnes of CO₂e. The climate drawback of a perpetual cow consists of the methane it emits into the atmosphere, equivalent to 65 tonnes of CO₂e.

A proportion of the permanent grassland area will presumably be unsuitable for grain cultivation and will remain as permanent grass for leasing or care, so the climate impact of the cows' digestive processes is roughly equal to the climate benefit of dairy farming on large grasslands. Reducing Danish milk production or the number of cows will therefore not benefit the climate.

A tax without any effect on the climate

Based on the above calculations, it can be concluded that a uniform tax on agricultural carbon emissions will, to a greater or lesser extent, cause a reduction in Danish milk production, which will benefit the national climate accounts, but not the climate itself , be it nationally or globally.

The text above is the short version of the calculations and conclusions by LDM. Find the entire text and calculations here:

Landsforeningen af Danske Mælkeproducenter (LDM)

The current market situation and the resulting need for action were discussed at the Bavarian dairy market summit. The Bündnis 90/The Greens group in the Bavarian federal-state parliament had invited different dairy market stakeholders at producer level to participate in this event.